Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
